Axial friction response of full-scale pipes in soft clays     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

The axial friction response of subsea pipelines in soft clays is a very important aspect for designers of subsea pipelines but the response is not well understood so far. There is a pressing need for the comprehension of the response. In this paper, model tests are performed using full-scale pipes coated with polyethylene (PE) to study the effects of the set-up period, the pipe diameter, the buried depth of the pipe, the shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate on the axial friction response of pipelines in soft clays. The variations of the axial friction coefficient are analyzed using the effective stress method based on model test results. The results show that the axial friction resistance increases with the increasing pipe diameter but the effect of the pipe diameter on the axial friction coefficient can be neglected. The ultimate axial resistance also increases with the increase of the buried depth of pipelines, the undrained shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate. The axial friction coefficient increases with the increasing loading rate. However, the axial friction coefficient decreases with the increasing buried depth. The method to determine the axial friction coefficient is developed by analyzing model test results, which considers the effects of the diameter, the buried depth, the undrained shear strength of soft clays and the loading rate. The study results not only extend the industry data base but also supply a basis to determine the axial friction coefficient of PE-coated pipes in soft clays for ocean engineering geological investigations.  相似文献   

Large scale three-dimensional seepage analysis model test and numerical simulation research on undersea tunnel     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

During the construction process of Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Undersea Tunnel, the faults and other unfavorable geological discontinuities were often encountered. To study the water inrush mechanism in the faults, both physical model test and numerical analysis were carried out. The results of crown displacement and hydraulic pressure of the monitoring sections in the physical model and numerical model were analyzed in this paper. It was found that the displacement and hydraulic pressure in the process of tunnel construction are often interacted as both cause and effect, and the lower of hydraulic pressure is often accompanied with the growth of its displacement. The changing of the excavation disturbed zone during the excavation in the undersea tunnel was also studied. The results show that the excavation disturbed zone in fault is larger than that in surrounding rock mass, and the excavation disturbance effects in the filling type fault are both transient and persistent. When the displacement and hydraulic pressure in the undersea tunnel change sharply during excavation, there are relatively slow and continuous change trend of the displacement and hydraulic pressure. For practical purposes, to prevent water inrush in the undersea tunnel, more attentions should also be paid to the undersea tunnel after excavation.  相似文献   

异龙湖流域湿地生态系统健康评价   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

刘培  常凤琴  吴红宝  路志明  朱梦姝  李楠 《湿地科学与管理》2016,(3):28-32

湿地生态系统健康状况评价为湿地资源的合理开发、生态系统的维护提供了重要的借鉴。在充分了解异龙湖流域湿地资源环境的基础上,结合湖泊湿地生态系统的概念及内涵,采用PSR(压力-状态-响应)框架模型和生态系统健康指数计算方法对研究区湿地生态系统健康状况进行评价。结果表明:(1)异龙湖流域湿地生态系统健康评价综合分值(Y)为2.8494,处于[2,3]之间,属于脆弱状态;(2)从三大指标状况来看,压力指标(P)、状态指标(S)和响应指标(R)在评价等级中的得分及表现情况分别为0.7368(脆弱状态)、1.1620(亚健康状态)和0.9506(亚健康状态);(3)人口密度、人类活动强度、单位面积化肥和农药负荷、水土流失强度、湖泊水富营养化、人们的环保意识等指标是影响流域内湿地生态系统健康状况的关键因素,人为因素占主导地位。  相似文献   

A new assessment model for evacuation vulnerability in urban areas     

Xiaoyi Ma  Ci Song  Chenghu Zhou 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(12):2401-2420

In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment.  相似文献   

CMIP6通量距平强迫模式比较计划（FAFMIP）概况与评述     

王雅琦  刘海龙  靳江波  林鹏飞  马金峰  李逸文  于子棚  杨茜  孙志阔  丁梦蓉  孟瑶 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(5):481-486

通量距平强迫模式比较计划（FAFMIP）是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的子计划之一。FAFMIP共设计了5组试验,利用CMIP6中的大气-海洋耦合环流模式（AOGCM）对海表施加动量通量、热通量和淡水通量扰动,旨在研究在CO₂强迫下模式模拟的海洋热吸收,由热膨胀引起的全球平均海平面上升,及由海洋密度和环流导致的动力海平面变化等方面的不确定性。  相似文献   

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究     

季涤非  刘利  李立娟  孙超  于馨竹  李锐喆  张诚  王斌 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(4):343-351

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。  相似文献   

基于数值预报模式的乡镇温度预报方法研究     

吴春英  刘多文  钟博  蒋婷婷  于蕙箐  陈佳美  高燕 《气象与环境学报》2019,(1):108-112

利用2015年8月至2017年7月长兴岛站和交流岛站日最高气温、日最低气温实况资料,对ECMWF细网格2 m温度预报值和日本FSFE02(24 h地面形势场预报)、FSFE03(36 h地面形势场预报)进行了检验。结果表明:根据历史回归统计检验,ECMWF细网格模式24 h的2 m最高气温、最低气温预报效果显著,通过了0. 05信度显著性检验。对各月做相关分析,相关性均较好。利用前一日ECMWF细网格2 m温度预报值与长兴岛站实况差值,根据统计的ECMWF细网格2 m温度预报订正值,做出长兴岛站未来24 h的气温预报。交流岛站温度预报是在长兴岛站温度预报的基础上订正做出,经统计分析,交流岛站和长兴岛站的气温差值与地面形势场和风场有较好的对应关系,根据不同类型的地面形势场和风场订正值,做出交流岛站的温度预报。应用Matlab计算机语言的开发功能,提取ECMWF细网格2 m温度预报的最高、最低气温值,并录入当日长兴岛站和交流岛站最高、最低气温实况值,自动预报各站未来24 h最高气温、最低气温。创建可视化预报工作界面,实现乡镇温度预报自动化。  相似文献   

数值天气预报和气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望     

段晚锁  汪叶  霍振华  周菲凡 《气候与环境研究》2019,24(3):396-406

从初始误差、模式误差以及两者综合影响的角度,综述了天气、气候集合预报方法的研究进展,指出了传统方法的优势,同时也评论了这些方法的局限性,提出了对未来先进集合预报方法的一些思考,以及需要解决的挑战性问题和可能的应用。  相似文献   

气候系统模式FGOALS模拟的南亚夏季风：偏差和原因分析     

黄昕  周天军  吴波  陈晓龙 《大气科学》2019,43(2):437-455

本文通过与观测和再分析资料的对比,评估了LASG/IAP发展的气候系统模式FGOALS的两个版本FGOALS-g2和FGOALS-s2对南亚夏季风的气候态和年际变率的模拟能力,并使用水汽收支方程诊断,研究了造成降水模拟偏差的原因。结果表明,两个模式夏季气候态降水均在陆地季风槽内偏少,印度半岛附近海域偏多,在降水年循环中表现为夏季北侧辐合带北推范围不足。FGOALS-g2中赤道印度洋"东西型"海温偏差导致模拟的东赤道印度洋海上辐合带偏弱,而FGOALS-s2中印度洋"南北型"海温偏差导致模拟的海上辐合带偏向西南。水汽收支分析表明,两个模式中气候态夏季风降水的模拟偏差主要来自于整层积分的水汽通量,尤其是垂直动力平流项的模拟偏差。一方面,夏季阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的海温偏冷而赤道西印度洋海温偏暖,造成向印度半岛的水汽输送偏少;另一方面,对流层温度偏冷,冷中心位于印度半岛北部对流层上层,同时季风槽内总云量偏少,云长波辐射效应偏弱,对流层经向温度梯度偏弱以及大气湿静力稳定度偏强引起的下沉异常造成陆地季风槽内降水偏少。在年际变率上,观测中南亚夏季风环流和降水指数与Ni?o3.4指数存在负相关关系,但FGOALS两个版本模式均存在较大偏差。两个模式中与ENSO暖事件相关的沃克环流异常下沉支和对应的负降水异常西移至赤道以南的热带中西印度洋,沿赤道非对称的加热异常令两个模式中越赤道环流季风增强,导致印度半岛南部产生正降水异常。ENSO相关的沃克环流异常下沉支及其对应的负降水异常偏西与两个模式对热带南印度洋气候态降水的模拟偏差有关。研究结果表明,若要提高FGOALS两个版本模式对南亚夏季风气候态模拟技巧,需减小耦合模式对印度洋海温、对流层温度及云的模拟偏差;若要提高南亚夏季风和ENSO相关性模拟技巧需要提高模式对热带印度洋气候态降水以及与ENSO相关的环流异常的模拟能力。  相似文献   

基于WACCM+DART的临近空间SABER和MLS臭氧观测同化试验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

敬文琪  王业桂  崔园园  蔡其发  兰伟仁 《大气科学》2019,43(2):233-250

本研究在WACCM+DART（Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model,Data Assimilation Research Test-Bed）临近空间资料同化预报系统中加入SABER（Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry）和MLS（Microwave Limb Sounder）臭氧观测同化接口,并以2016年2月一次平流层爆发性增温（SSW）过程为模拟个例进行了SABER和MLS臭氧观测同化试验,得出以下结论:同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度观测得出的WACCM+DART臭氧分析场能够较真实反映SSW期间北极上空平流层臭氧廓线随时间的演变特征,且与ERA5（Fifth Generation of ECMWF Reanalyses）再分析资料描述的臭氧变化特征具有很好的一致性;基于SABER和MLS臭氧观测的WACCM臭氧6 h预报检验表明同化臭氧观测对臭氧分析和预报误差的改善效果主要体现在南半球高纬平流层和北半球中高纬平流层中上层-中间层底部;基于ERA5再分析资料的WACCM+DART分析场检验表明同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度资料可在提高北半球高纬地区上平流层-中间层底部臭氧场分析质量的同时减小该地区上平流层-中间层底部温度场和中间层底部纬向风场的分析误差;基于MLS臭氧资料的臭氧中期预报检验表明相对控制试验同化SABER和MLS臭氧体积浓度资料能更好改善0~5 d下平流层和中间层底部臭氧的预报效果。  相似文献